An analysis by atmospheric scientists at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, has shown that, in the Arctic, aircraft vapour trails have caused 15–20% of surface warming.
Globally, commercial aircraft vapour trails have been responsible for 4–8% of surface warming since records began in 1850 - equivalent to a temperature increase of 0.03–0.06°C.
Previously, it had been assumed that the impact of aircraft emissions was the same everywhere. The new analysis, led by Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford, reveals that aircraft emissions increase the fraction of cirrus clouds where vapour trails are most abundant but, in other locations, the main effect is to decrease temperatures in the lower atmosphere, thereby reducing relative humidy and reducing the fraction of cirrus clouds.
Black carbon emission from aircraft also play an important role in determining whether cirrus cloud formation occurs. The researchers concluded that, If black-carbon emissions from aircraft could be reduced 20-fold, the warming resulting from vapour trails would be halted and a slight cooling would occur.















